Scotland: National Rural Network
Connecting Rural Scotland - Promoting Rural Growth

Professor David Freshwater, from the University of Kentucky and OECD Rural Development Programme, gave an insightful and thought-provoking presentation called Future Directions in Rural Development at the recent Rural Gathering event at Perth Racecourse. In this report, you can get the highlights of his speech, and you can download his presentation from our documents library.

Scotland Rural Policy Review

Professor Freshwater was involved in the OECD Scotland Rural Policy Review. He said Scotland was the only place where a review had been carried out that rural was better than urban as a general case. Scotland's "national brand" is also largely rural in nature - for example landscape, whisky, golf, village culture.

Talking about rural policy, he asked how you can conceive of a locally developed rural policy from Brussels? He said the Common Agricultural Policy is limiting because of its agricultural orientation. Key barriers to rural development can come from unexpected places, such as housing.

Important time to reconsider

Professor Freshwater said now was an important time to reconsider rural policy and rural futures because the recession is going to have a huge impact everywhere. There has been a rapid drop in commodity prices, significant job losses and significant indirect impact from the financial crisis as credit froze.

The out-year effects will include limited government policy freedom, consumers changing spending patterns and people being in the labour market longer. And climate change responses could be coupled to medium term recovery strategies.

Mixed implications for rural areas

The recession has mixed implications for rural areas. On the positive side, rural products tend to be necessities rather than luxuries, there will be a greater tendency to holiday at home, rural policies may be more focused and investment orientated, and there will be renewable energy and carbon sequestrian opportunities.

On the other hand, there is a higher cost of borrowed funds, more pressure on governments to reduce levels of service and costs of delivery, there could be lower populations in rural areas is retirees are not moving to rural, and energy taxes and restrictions will have an impact on mining, forestry etc.

Core drivers

Professor Freshwater highlighted five other drivers that will have an impact.

Demographic change

Rural societies are aging, with the effect of several generations of low birth rates and youth migration. National population growth comes from immigrants, but there is less immigration to rural areas. Will an increasingly immigrant population share traditional values about rural?

Network evolution

Professor Freshwater said, "Through networks we exchange. Through exchange we prosper."

Rural regions are less well connected than city regions, for example historically there have been fewer roads and more expensive shipping. Today slower broadband is an issue. An inferior network leads to economic exclusion.

Environmental Change

Climate change has implications of more expensive transport and potential for renewable energy. There is also an increased interest in self-supply in things like local foods. Professor Freshwater also said some places may get better if they get warmer.

Environmental protection will mean increased costs of resource use, but a better quality of environment attracts more people.

Economic Change

Better networks lead to the possibilty of global competition, for example bed and breakfasts, call centres and hip surgery. The desire for novelty means there are opportunities for micro-firms to locate and prosper anywhere.

There is also a major shift from the make vs buy decision and the unbundling of firms could have major consequences for jobs.

Social resistance

Professor Freshwater said in the face of external pressure to change rural society often pushes back. He said despite better opportunities for rural youth away from home, they are often encouraged to stay. And rural communities often engage in 'beggar thy neighbour' games when cooperation is the only path to improvement.

Implications for rural Scotland

To finish, Professor Freshwater highlighted a number of implications for rural Scotland.

• Aging, and soon to shrink, population will make it more difficult and more important to keep rural Scotland an attractive place to live and work
• Demographic decline in peri-ruban regions may be less severe
• Must continue to think "outside the CAP"
• Increased competition for tourism makes it more important to maintain Scotland's "brand visibility"
• When considering adaptation to climate change use the rural typology to identify different impacts
• High cost housing - if you don't fix the housing problem you can't fix the labour problem

If you want to read Professor Freshwater's presentation in full you can download his presentation from our documents library.

What do you think?

What do you think about the issues raised in Professor Freshwater's presentation? You can share your views by adding a comment to this article. Should rural Scotland think "outside the CAP"? Could the recession bring benefits as well as negative impacts to the rural economy? I've also added a posting to the discussion forum on housing and rural development. You can add your comments on the topic How important is housing to the future of rural development in Scotland?